CD rates are rising faster than earlier this year, with increases accounting for 68 percent of rate changes May 1-May 31, 2026, on the CD Valet platform. That makes questions of when — and how long — to lock in CD yields more important now than at most times in recent banking history.
The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50 percent to 3.75 percent after its June 16-17 meeting.
Policymakers and markets, however, have differing perspectives on where rates may go next. Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal, due largely to conflict in the Middle East, while unemployment is stable and growth forecasts remain healthy.
With inflation in recent years having pushed interest rates higher by hundreds of basis points, savers want to know:
- Is now the right time to use a certificate of deposit to lock in an interest rate — potentially for the long term?
- What would a “good” rate be if you did lock in funds in a time investment, such as CDs or U.S. Treasuries?
- What maturity date most supports strong yield from a longer-term standpoint?
- Which deposit product most protects from the wide potential for higher or lower deposit rates?
Protecting a strong and consistent yield over the course of one to two years is potentially more important than simply choosing the highest yield today. Here’s why, according to recent economic data, and how the current offerings from banks and credit unions help.
Today’s Rates: A Look at the Listings on CD Valet
Some six-month and 12-month CDs currently beat comparable U.S. Treasury rates, according to CD Valet’s Market Intelligence Tool. On July 1, a six-month U.S. Treasury yielded 4.00 percent, while a 12-month U.S. Treasury also yielded 4.00 percent. A 24-month U.S. Treasury yielded 4.17 percent.
Here’s how that compares to offers available from banks and credit unions:
The top three banks for six-month CDs — Dolores State Bank, Colorado; Rising Bank, MIssouri; and Bank of the Orient, California— are now offering rates of 4.18 percent or more.
The top three credit unions for six-month CDs — Internal Revenue F.C.U., Louisiana; Indiana University Credit Union, Indiana; and Louisville Federal Credit Union, Kentucky — offer rates at or above 4.50 percent.
For 12-month CDs, the top three banks — Community Trust Bank Inc, Kentucky; Raymond James Bank, Florida; and Pioneer Savings Bank, Ohio— are offering rates of 4.20 percent or more.
The top three credit unions for 12-month CDs — Golden Valley Federal Credit Union, California; A+ Federal Credit Union, Texas; and Neches Federal Credit Union, Texas; — offer rates at or above 4.65 percent.
Visit CD Valet for the most current rates or to find rates available near you.
Let’s look at what recent economic data tells us about the likely future for deposit rates.
Inflation: Still Moving Higher
Inflation remains the central question for depositors because it continues to limit the Federal Reserve’s ability to lower interest rates.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.5 percent in May, after rising 0.6 percent in April. Annual inflation is now at its highest level since April 2023.
Energy continued to drive much of the increase. The energy index rose 3.9 percent in May, after increasing 3.8 percent in April and 10.9 percent in March.
Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2 percent in May and was up 2.9 percent from a year earlier.
Employment: Stable
The labor market remains steady, though job growth continues to show signs of moderation.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the unemployment rate was unchanged in May at 4.3 percent. The unemployment rate has remained in a narrow range of 4.3 percent to 4.5 percent since July 2025.
Stable employment does not tend to point strongly toward lower interest rates, especially while inflation is rising. GDP forecasts indicate strength in the economy as well.
GDP: Solid Growth Forecast Moves Higher
One June 17, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model’s estimate for real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2026 came in at 3.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted annual basis, up from 2.8 percent on June 16. That slight increase came from stronger real personal consumption expenditures growth. As of July 1, 2026, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model estimates real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2026 at 1.2 percent.
Bottom Line
The U.S. economic data is not showing clear signals consistent with lower rates:
- Inflation is rising again.
- Unemployment remains stable.
- GDP forecasts suggest fairly strong growth ahead.
A perspective:
For savers, the current rate outlook is unusually split. Material differences appear between policymaker expectations at the Federal Reserve and the futures market, creating uncertainty about where interest rates may land over the next one to two years.
With rate increases representing the majority of rate changes on CD Valet, the Fed Futures market shows 30-50 basis-points difference between policymakers and the market when looking at terms between now and December 2027.
Savers should consider:
- If the Fed’s projections prove correct, today’s stronger CD rates may become harder to find later, making it useful to lock in yield before rates move lower.
- If the futures market proves correct, rates may stay higher for longer, which could make shorter maturities or a laddered approach more attractive than locking up all funds for too long.
Stay ahead of rate changes and find the nation’s best CD offers with CD Valet.
Financial institutions can also view and compare their data using CD Valet’s Market Intelligence tool, which aggregates certificate data from over 4,000 U.S. banks and credit unions. Contact Jamie Fairbanks at jfairbanks@cdvalet.com to subscribe to that tool.
