CD Rate Trends September 2026: Higher Rates Emerge After Fed Hike

CD rates are moving following the Federal Reserve’s September rate hike, but the strongest opportunities aren’t necessarily in the most common terms. Savers willing to shop across maturities can find rates above 4.50 percent, with some of the most attractive yields appearing in CDs with terms between 18 and 36 months.

Are CD Rates Going Up Right Now?

Yes. More changes to rates offered by financial institutions were increases than decreases in the latest weekly data, and increases still substantially outnumber decreases.

During the past week, approximately 84.1 percent of all rate changes by financial institutions moved CD rates higher. With just 15.9 percent of rate changes showing as decreases, CD rate increases outnumbered decreases by more than five to one, according to CD Valet data from September 21, 2026.

The ratio of rate increases slowed in August, but that trend has now reversed. Other measures also point to continued upward pressure on CD rates.

The number of rate offerings of at least 4.00 percent APY increased by 180 to 3,780. CD Valet’s overall median remained at 3.25 percent. Median rates were 3.50 percent for 6-month CDs, 3.25 percent for 12-month CDs and 3.03 percent for 24-month CDs.

What Happens to CD Rates if the Fed Cuts Rates?

The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee increased rates at its September 16 meeting, reversing the direction of policy we have covered in recent months. The committee voted unanimously, 12–0, to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent. This is the Fed’s first rate increase since 2023.

Just as rate cuts generally push newly offered CD APYs lower, an increase tends to push them higher, although banks, credit unions, and CD terms would not necessarily respond at the same speed or by the same amount.

CD rates are moving following the Fed’s decision and could move further as policymakers’ latest projections point to another rate increase this year. With the economy showing signs of strength as well, competition among banks and credit unions for deposits could also push CD rates higher.

At his September 16 press conference, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said, “the plain fact is that inflation is too high and has been for too long,” as he outlined a primary focus on price stability. He also described an economy expanding steadily, supported by resilient domestic spending, strong productivity growth and robust capital investment, while job gains have kept pace with the workforce and unemployment has changed little.

With the next FOMC meeting scheduled for October 27–28, here’s a deeper look at what economic data suggest for the future of deposit rates.

Inflation: Still Too Elevated

Inflation remains elevated, with the latest readings showing little broad-based progress. Monthly price increases accelerated in August, while policymakers raised their inflation forecast for 2026.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index rose 0.4 percent in August after increasing 0.1 percent in July. Over the previous 12 months, headline inflation increased 3.4 percent, unchanged from July.

Gasoline prices rose 3.9 percent in August, accounting for more than one-third of the overall monthly increase. The only decline among these headline and core CPI measures was in annual core inflation, which edged down just 0.1 percentage point, from 2.5 percent to 2.4 percent.

Fifteen of the 18 Federal Reserve officials who participated in the September Summary of Economic Projections saw a greater risk that future core inflation would exceed their forecasts than fall below them.

Employment: Labor Market Little Changed

The labor market remained stable in August. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the national unemployment rate held at 4.1 percent, unchanged from July and little changed from a year earlier.

The Federal Reserve’s September Summary of Economic Projections also points to continued stability. Officials lowered their median unemployment forecast to 4.1 percent for 2026 and projected it would remain at that level through 2029. Their longer-term estimate remained unchanged at 4.2 percent.

None of the 18 Federal Reserve officials who participated in the September SEP saw a greater risk that future unemployment would exceed their forecasts than fall below them, compared with seven in June.

Economic Growth: GDPNow Continues to Point to Strong Growth

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model estimated real GDP growth at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.1 percent for the third quarter of 2026 as of September 17. That estimate increased from 4.6 percent on August 26.

The Fed’s September Summary of Economic Projections also showed a stronger outlook. Officials raised their median growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 0.1 percentage point each, to 2.3 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively. None of the 18 participants saw risks tilted toward weaker-than-forecast growth.

While GDPNow estimates can change as new data become available, the latest reading continues to point to strong economic growth in the third quarter.

Bottom Line: CD Rates Could Rise Further

Persistent inflation, stable unemployment and strong economic growth point toward continued upward pressure on interest rates. The Federal Reserve has already raised its target range to 3.75 percent to 4.00 percent, and policymakers’ latest projections are consistent with another quarter-percentage-point increase before year-end, although those projections are not a commitment to future action.

The Fed’s September Summary of Economic Projections puts the median projected federal funds rate at 4.1 percent at year-end. Notably, for the second consecutive SEP, Warsh did not submit his own economic or interest-rate projections.

For CD savers seeking yield, a key objective now is to find the right rate-to-maturity combination based on when they need access to their money and where they think interest rates may go next.

Should You Lock in a CD Rate Now?

Locking in a CD rate now can protect your yield if deposit rates unexpectedly decline, but the latest economic data continue to suggest caution about locking up funds when the future of rates and inflation is uncertain.

A hypothetical $10,000 deposit held for one year at 4.00 percent APY earns $400, compared with $425 at 4.25 percent APY. That 25-basis-point gap amounts to just $25 before taxes, assuming interest remains deposited and there are no fees. Larger rate increases or larger balances would make the dollar difference more significant.

The possibility of higher rates alone does not necessarily outweigh the benefit of securing today’s yield when the funds must be placed somewhere. Other accounts and investment types come with their own risks, which may outweigh the $25 difference in this example.

Some savers use a CD ladder, which divides deposits among several maturity dates so portions of the money become available for reinvestment at regular intervals. Consider using the CD Yield Curve, or the yields on U.S. Treasuries, and available 6-, 12-, 24-, 36- and 60-month terms to research yields before selecting a maturity.

Which CD Terms Are Rising Fastest?

Rates across the broader CD market continue to move higher, with 84.1 percent of rate changes in the latest weekly data showing increases. At the very top of the market, however, none of the three standard terms tracked by CD Valet rose during the week. The 99th-percentile APY remained unchanged at 4.25 percent for 6-, 12- and 24-month CDs.

The relatively flat-top end also fits the current interest-rate outlook. Federal Reserve projections point to one more rate increase in 2026, followed by lower rates later in the forecast horizon. That may give institutions less incentive to push longer-term CD rates substantially above shorter-term offers.

How CD Valet Tracks These Rates

Every CD rate listed on CD Valet is verified with publicly available data from federally insured banks and institutions. Rates are directly sourced and verified through a combination of daily manual reviews and structured data checks to ensure accuracy, availability and transparency.

CD Valet operates as a comprehensive CD marketplace, featuring over 40,000 rates from nearly 5,000 federally insured banks and credit unions. Rates are updated as often as daily, including after every FOMC meeting. Learn more about CD Valet’s data verification policy.

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