Let’s take a quick look at CD rates vs. Treasury rates following the June 17-18 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where there was no change in interest rates.
A 12-month share certificate from Geismar Complex Federal Credit Union (a selected employer-based credit union) offers savers an eye-catching 5.9% APY this week. Geismar Complex Federal Credit Union, based in Louisiana, has the highest 12-month offer among credit unions – and banks, too – on CD Valet.
Rising Bank, a digital bank based in St. Louis, Missouri and providing services nationwide, offers the highest bank rate for 12 months at 4.45% APY.
Both offers are notably higher, in terms of basis points, than U.S. Treasuries of the same duration. Many savers are now wondering if CDs will continue offering higher rates than Treasuries after the FOMC meeting.
What does economic data suggest will happen to CD rates after the FOMC meeting?
The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate focuses on maximum employment and price stability, which many track through inflation, unemployment, and jobless claims. We can also look at GDP forecast as a gauge for the health of the economy. Given these measures, we’re likely to continue seeing competitive CD rates, perhaps even staying above Treasuries for 12-month maturities until the FOMC meets again.
Current Economic Indicators
Looking at the year-over-year movement in core inflation, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index fell further to +2.10% , in April marking the lowest level in seven months. However, the month‐to‐month reading showed a modest increase of +0.10%. The contrasting signals—that is, a slight monthly rise coupled with a declining yearly pace—indicate that while prices are still creeping up on a short-term basis, the longer-term inflation trend is softening. The easing in the yearly rate may be a sign that past Fed tightening measures or improving supply conditions are beginning to temper price pressures and send inflation into its target range.
While unemployment remains flat at 4.2% in May, according to the St. Louis Fed, jobless claims have risen (adjusted for seasonal changes) and reached record levels for 2025 on June 2, the latest data reported.
As of June 17, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta estimates that GDP in the second quarter of 2025 will be 3.5 percent. In the first quarter of the year, we saw .3% decrease in GDP due to higher imports amidst tariff uncertainty, as well as a slowdown in consumer spending.
The bottom line
The Fed initially raised its target rate to combat rising inflation in 2022. We can’t say what the FOMC will do in future meetings, but the month-to-month core inflation numbers are no longer declining.
The unemployment data does not indicate spiking unemployment, but the jobless claims do show softness in the labor market.
Taken together, the economy has some inflation remaining (supporting a continuation of the current target range) and some labor headwinds (supporting a lower target range).
The good news is that savvy savers using CD Valet have access to more than 30,000 CD rates from 4,000 plus financial institutions, enabling you to locate the best rates across the nation regardless of economic twists and turns.
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