{"id":5192,"date":"2026-01-22T08:10:42","date_gmt":"2026-01-22T16:10:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/blog\/?p=5192"},"modified":"2026-01-22T11:37:33","modified_gmt":"2026-01-22T19:37:33","slug":"will-the-fed-cut-again-cd-rates-surprises","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/insights\/will-the-fed-cut-again-cd-rates-surprises\/","title":{"rendered":"Will the Fed Cut Again? Here\u2019s Why CD Rates Could Offer Some Surprises"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Given the split nature of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) vote in December\u2014two members voted for no change, and one voted for a 50-bps decrease\u2014committee members are sending mixed signals to depositors on the future of deposit rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With the FOMC meeting next week on Jan. 27\u201328, professional investors expect no change in rates from the FOMC this month, according to CME Group. And yet, employment data is stronger now than a month ago, inflation is still not down below the Federal Reserve\u2019s 2.00% target, and GDP forecasts are very strong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Depositors could not be blamed for wondering:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Is now the right time to use a certificate of deposit (CD) to lock in an interest rate\u2014potentially for the long term?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>What would a \u201cgood\u201d rate be for funds locked in a time investment, such as CDs or U.S. Treasuries?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>In December, the Fed moved the interbank overnight rate down to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%. Markets pretty clearly expect no change in rates next week. Waiting to open a CD is not likely to provide a benefit, but choosing well when selecting a term could. Current bank and credit union rates for certificates are strong relative to U.S. Treasuries of similar term, especially for maturities of a year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Going longer than 12 months comes with risk (but also potential reward), as the economy is now the wild card in the future path of deposit rates. Currently, employment and GDP growth are not showing a clear need for stimulus. Inflation is also showing it may not be transient.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Today\u2019s Rates: A Look at the Listings on CD Valet<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Institutions offer rates for 12 months that currently beat U.S. Treasury rates, according to CD Valet\u2019s Market Intelligence Tool. A 12-month T-bill yielded 3.55% on Dec. 16; a 24-month note yielded 3.59%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The top three banks\u2014Credit One Bank N.A.; Morgan Stanley Private Bank N.A.; and Farmers Bank in Tennessee\u2014are now offering rates of 4.07% APY* or more for 12-month CDs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The top three credit unions\u2014Daniels-Sheridan F.C.U. in Montana; Best Financial Credit Union in Michigan; and Scott Associates Credit Union in Ohio\u2014offer rates at or above 4.85% APY*. Visit <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/\">CD Valet<\/a> for the most current rates or to find rates available near you.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Given that a rate higher than 4.00% APY is still a very strong offer for a CD, some depositors are moving now to lock in for terms of a year or less.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here\u2019s the economic perspective that informs a decision like that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Economic Outlook: Strongly Differing Views<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Federal Reserve focuses on maximum employment and price stability when determining monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Depositors might recall that the December rate cut was preceded by weeks in which no economic data was collected. Now, we know that inflation is still elevated, unemployment data is trending down, and GDP forecasts are exceedingly strong. The U.S. economy is showing a fair bit of strength, even to the point of being overheated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Chair Jerome Powell said after the December cut that the FOMC needed to \u201csee how the economy evolves,\u201d which <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2025\/12\/10\/fed-interest-rate-decision-december-2025-.html\">CNBC noted<\/a> was a similar statement to the one made by Powell the last time he \u201csignaled that the committee likely was done cutting for the time being.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Savers looking to maximize yield may want to consider terms that provide the absolute best yield, and they may also want to investigate what yields a longer term would provide. Repricing CDs at their maturity is becoming more important to preserving yield over time. Here\u2019s why.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Stubborn Inflation: May Motivate Rate Increases at Some Point<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.30% on a seasonally adjusted basis in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/cpi.nr0.htm\">reported<\/a> on Jan. 13.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Over the last 12 months, BLS\u2019 index for all items also increased 2.70% before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter rose 0.40% in December and was the largest factor in the \u201call items\u201d monthly increase. The index for energy rose 0.30% in December. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.20% in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cThe most important thing facing us is we\u2019ve got to get inflation back to 2.00%,\u201d Austan Goolsbee, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President, <a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/news\/fed-officials-back-rate-cut-205708477.html\">told CNBC<\/a>. He cited concerns over rising costs and affordability. The labor market also appears to be stabilizing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Employment: Not Showing Need for Support<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The latest Labor Department <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/ICSA\">report<\/a> on claims for jobless benefits shows such filings are down considerably since Dec. 6. The Jan. 10 report showed 198,000 claims\u2014the second-lowest weekly total in the past 12 months. The most recent peak was 237,000 claims on Dec. 6, still well below the year\u2019s high of 264,000 on Sept. 6.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While January 2026 unemployment data is not yet available, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis reported a decline from November to December 2025, from 4.50% to 4.40%. That\u2019s not a large move, but 4.40% unemployment is not high by historical standards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>GDP: Showing Growth Not Stagnation<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta\u2019s GDPNow model now estimates real GDP growth for 2025 (seasonally adjusted annual rate) at 5.30% for fourth quarter 2025 as of Jan. 14, up from 5.10% on Jan. 9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The upward move in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.atlantafed.org\/cqer\/research\/gdpnow\">GDPNow<\/a> forecast reflects growth in personal consumption expenditures, private domestic investment, and government expenditures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bottom Line<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The U.S. economy is not showing signals consistent with lower rates:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The employment picture has improved.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Concerns remain about non-transitory inflation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Projections for GDP are quite strong by historical standards.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>For CDs, which have a fixed term and a locked-in rate, the question most savers ponder is: Open a CD now or wait? Waiting to open a CD likely has more downside risk to yield than upside, as we reported in prior months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>A helpful perspective: <\/strong>Today\u2019s rate environment leaves more room for change ahead. That makes it practical to ask one key question when opening a CD: <em>What might deposit rates look like when this CD matures?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Many depositors now choose shorter maturities of 12 months or less because of higher returns than U.S. Treasuries. Consider reviewing current 12-month CD rates from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/?tab=featuredCDs\">featured banks or credit unions<\/a> near you or nationwide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Stay ahead of rate changes and find the best CD opportunities nationwide with CD Valet.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Explore our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/blog\/best-cd-rates-by-state-map\/\"><strong>Best CD Rates by State<\/strong> <strong>interactive map<\/strong><\/a>, updated daily, to see how rates compare where you live \u2014 or visit our <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/blog\/best-cd-rates\/\">new Best CD Rates page<\/a><\/strong>, updated monthly, for a quick snapshot of the highest CD rates available right now across banks and credit unions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>*Annual Percentage Yields (APY) not offered by CD Valet but based on data from various institutions as of 01\/22\/26 and subject to change. Early withdrawal penalty may apply. Fees may reduce earnings. Additional restrictions may apply.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Given the split nature of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) vote in December\u2014two members voted for no change, and one voted for a 50-bps decrease\u2014committee members are sending mixed signals to depositors on the future of deposit rates. With the FOMC meeting next week on Jan. 27\u201328, professional investors expect no change in rates [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":5193,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_eb_attr":"","_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5192","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-rate-trends"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Will the Fed Cut Again? Why CD Rates Could Surprise Savers - CD Valet<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"With the January Fed meeting approaching, mixed economic signals could create unexpected opportunities for CD savers. Here\u2019s what to watch.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/blog\/will-the-fed-cut-again-cd-rates-surprises\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Will the Fed Cut Again? Why CD Rates Could Surprise Savers - CD Valet\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"With the January Fed meeting approaching, mixed economic signals could create unexpected opportunities for CD savers. 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Here\u2019s Why CD Rates Could Offer Some Surprises"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/blog\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/blog\/","name":"CD Valet","description":"Cd Valet","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/blog\/#organization"},"alternateName":"CD Rates","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/blog\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/blog\/#organization","name":"CD Valet","alternateName":"CD Rates","url":"https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/blog\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/cdvaletlogo.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/cdvaletlogo.png","width":400,"height":89,"caption":"CD Valet"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"}},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/3c09568a36a4ba9298aa5ffcdd5af6ac","name":"John Blizzard","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/ba23bfb2193e67c5f7993dfe12772610de7e4a298fe8ee12a42258f9d7a9bc59?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/ba23bfb2193e67c5f7993dfe12772610de7e4a298fe8ee12a42258f9d7a9bc59?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"John Blizzard"},"description":"John Blizzard is the founder of CD Valet. His vision for CD Valet was to create a true marketplace for consumers to easily find all publicly available CD options from their local banks and credit unions to national players to the highest ratepayers and most unique offerings, all on one site. John aspires to create the next generation of financial services marketplaces that truly benefit consumers and financial institutions to garner access to a new and robust source of retail deposits and clients, benefiting both through uniquely designed tools and data transparency. John created CD Valet through Seattle Bank, where he has served as President and CEO since April 2014.","url":"#molongui-disabled-link"}]}},"uagb_featured_image_src":{"full":["https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/JAN-MARKET-UPDATE.png",966,421,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/JAN-MARKET-UPDATE-370x320.png",370,320,true],"medium":["https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/JAN-MARKET-UPDATE-574x250.png",574,250,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/JAN-MARKET-UPDATE-768x335.png",768,335,true],"large":["https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/JAN-MARKET-UPDATE.png",966,421,false],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/JAN-MARKET-UPDATE.png",966,421,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/JAN-MARKET-UPDATE.png",966,421,false],"authorship-box-avatar":["https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/JAN-MARKET-UPDATE-150x150.png",150,150,true],"authorship-box-related":["https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/JAN-MARKET-UPDATE-70x70.png",70,70,true],"bdpp-medium":["https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/JAN-MARKET-UPDATE-640x421.png",640,421,true],"tptn_thumbnail":["https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/JAN-MARKET-UPDATE-75x75.png",75,75,true]},"uagb_author_info":{"display_name":"John Blizzard","author_link":"#molongui-disabled-link"},"uagb_comment_info":0,"uagb_excerpt":"Given the split nature of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) vote in December\u2014two members voted for no change, and one voted for a 50-bps decrease\u2014committee members are sending mixed signals to depositors on the future of deposit rates. With the FOMC meeting next week on Jan. 27\u201328, professional investors expect no change in rates&hellip;","rttpg_featured_image_url":{"full":["https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/JAN-MARKET-UPDATE.png",966,421,false],"landscape":["https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/JAN-MARKET-UPDATE.png",966,421,false],"portraits":["https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/JAN-MARKET-UPDATE.png",966,421,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/JAN-MARKET-UPDATE-370x320.png",370,320,true],"medium":["https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/JAN-MARKET-UPDATE-574x250.png",574,250,true],"large":["https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/JAN-MARKET-UPDATE.png",966,421,false],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/JAN-MARKET-UPDATE.png",966,421,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/JAN-MARKET-UPDATE.png",966,421,false],"authorship-box-avatar":["https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/JAN-MARKET-UPDATE-150x150.png",150,150,true],"authorship-box-related":["https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/JAN-MARKET-UPDATE-70x70.png",70,70,true],"bdpp-medium":["https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/JAN-MARKET-UPDATE-640x421.png",640,421,true],"tptn_thumbnail":["https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/JAN-MARKET-UPDATE-75x75.png",75,75,true]},"rttpg_author":{"display_name":"John Blizzard","author_link":"#molongui-disabled-link"},"rttpg_comment":0,"rttpg_category":"<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/insights\/category\/rate-trends\/\" rel=\"category tag\">Rate Trends<\/a>","rttpg_excerpt":"Given the split nature of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) vote in December\u2014two members voted for no change, and one voted for a 50-bps decrease\u2014committee members are sending mixed signals to depositors on the future of deposit rates. With the FOMC meeting next week on Jan. 27\u201328, professional investors expect no change in rates&hellip;","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5192","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5192"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5192\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5196,"href":"https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5192\/revisions\/5196"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5193"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5192"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5192"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.cdvalet.com\/insights\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5192"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}